Dutch supermarket group Ahold Delhaize is expected to keep growing in the United States even as the overall grocery market cools, according to a preview note from Bank of America Global Research. The bank estimates that the company's third-quarter group sales rose 2.6% year over year to 23.07 billion euros, helped by market share gains in the US.
That growth comes against a challenging backdrop. BofA cites Nielsen data showing US supermarket sales down 1.1% year over year in the quarter to date, with volumes down a sharper 4.0%. In plain terms, shoppers are buying fewer items across the industry, which makes it harder for any grocer to post growth.
How Ahold Delhaize is bucking the trend
To keep sales moving in a soft market, retailers often lean on what analysts call "price investment" — more promotions or lower shelf prices. That can keep traffic coming through the doors, but it usually squeezes gross margin first. BofA's estimate of +0.3% for Ahold Delhaize's US like-for-like sales suggests the company is holding up better than the market, but not without some near-term trade-offs.
The company's strategy appears to be winning customers even as industry volumes fall. By offering competitive prices, Ahold Delhaize can take share from rivals, which helps spread its mostly fixed store and distribution costs over a larger sales base. Over time, bigger scale can also improve terms with suppliers, potentially boosting profitability.
However, the immediate effect of heavier promotions is often thinner margins. That timing mismatch — costs hit first, benefits arrive later — helps explain why BofA raised its longer-run sales assumptions for 2026-2028 while slightly trimming its 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast by 0.3%. The bank also noted currency headwinds, which can weigh on reported results when the euro strengthens against the dollar.
What it means for investors
For investors watching food retailers, this is a reminder that "winning" in a soft category can look margin-thin before it looks profit-rich. A company can gain market share and still see near-term earnings pressure as it invests in prices to attract customers.
Ahold Delhaize is scheduled to report its third-quarter results on November 4th. That report will show whether the company's US like-for-like sales came in around BofA's estimate and how much margin pressure it absorbed. Investors will also be watching for any update on the company's longer-term outlook, especially after BofA raised its sales assumptions for 2026-2028.
The broader grocery sector has been under pressure as inflation-weary consumers trade down or cut back on discretionary items. While food is a necessity, shoppers are becoming more price-sensitive, which forces grocers to compete harder on price. That dynamic is playing out across the industry, and Ahold Delhaize's ability to keep growing in the US suggests its strategy is resonating with shoppers.
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that market share gains are not always immediately profitable. When a company invests in prices to win customers, the payoff often comes later, in the form of higher volumes and better supplier terms. That's why analysts sometimes adjust near-term earnings estimates down even as they raise longer-term sales forecasts.
As the grocery market cools, investors will likely keep an eye on how Ahold Delhaize balances growth and profitability. The company's results on November 4th will provide a clearer picture of whether its US strategy is paying off without eroding margins too much.
