Polish e-commerce giant Allegro has ended a bitter dispute with parcel-locker operator InPost, signing a delivery agreement worth at least 8 billion zlotys (about $2 billion) that runs through 2031. The deal removes a major source of uncertainty for investors and prompted Allegro to sharply raise its profit growth forecast for next year.
Allegro now expects its domestic adjusted EBITDA—a common measure of operating profit before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization—to grow by 18.5% to 20.5% in 2026, up from its previous guidance of 11% to 14%. The company said the new InPost contract, which locks in cheaper parcel-locker delivery rates, should add 270 to 280 million zlotys to 2026 adjusted EBITDA, provided certain conditions are met.
Why the dispute mattered
InPost’s parcel lockers are a go-to delivery option in Poland, used by millions of online shoppers. For Allegro, which dominates Polish e-commerce, having reliable and affordable access to InPost’s network is critical. The two companies had been locked in an arbitration spat, creating uncertainty about how Allegro would display shipping choices to customers and what it might end up paying for them.
That uncertainty weighed on Allegro’s shares and made it harder for investors to gauge future costs. The new agreement resolves that feud and brings clarity to a key part of Allegro’s cost structure.
JPMorgan, a global investment bank, noted that the savings from the deal are applied retroactively from 2026, which helps explain the size of the forecast upgrade. The bank also suggested that if order volumes hold up, there could be further upward revisions to 2027 forecasts.
What it means for investors
In e-commerce, delivery is one of the largest variable costs. The more packages a company ships, the more it pays, which can cap profits even when sales are growing. By securing cheaper parcel-locker rates through 2031, Allegro lowers the cost per order and keeps more of each incremental zloty of merchandise sales as profit.
That turns the expected 270-280 million zloty EBITDA lift into something bigger than a one-off. It improves what analysts call operating leverage—meaning earnings can grow faster than sales as volumes rise. For investors, that makes Allegro’s higher 2026 growth target look more durable and makes JPMorgan’s point about potential 2027 upgrades easier to see, since the cost base is clearer for longer.
The deal also removes a distraction for management, allowing them to focus on growth rather than legal battles. Allegro has been expanding its marketplace and logistics network, and a stable relationship with InPost is essential to that strategy.
Broader context
The resolution comes at a time when European e-commerce is facing pressure from rising costs and cautious consumer spending. Companies like Allegro are looking for ways to protect margins while still offering competitive delivery options. This deal is a reminder that logistics partnerships can be as important to an online retailer’s bottom line as product pricing or marketing.
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that Allegro has removed a major cost uncertainty and given itself a clearer path to higher profits. While the company still faces competition and macroeconomic headwinds, the InPost deal provides a solid foundation for its 2026 targets.
As always, investors should keep an eye on whether Allegro can maintain its order volumes and whether the promised savings materialize as expected. But for now, the market is likely to view this as a positive development for the company’s future earnings.
