SpaceX shares climbed more than 5% in the latest session after Morgan Stanley reiterated its bullish stance, calling the stock “cheap and getting cheaper.” The investment bank maintained its overweight rating and $300 price target, signaling confidence in the private space company's long-term growth prospects.
What's happening with SpaceX stock?
In a Sunday note, analyst Adam Jonas argued that SpaceX shares have largely traded sideways around $150 since early August. At roughly $159, he said the stock looks “unusually cheap” when valued against what the company could earn several years from now. His framework looks ahead to 2028, pegging the company at about 30 times estimated 2028 earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT).
The stock's jump to $167.05 reflects growing investor optimism, but Morgan Stanley's view suggests there's still room to run. The $300 price target implies significant upside from current levels, though it's important to note that price targets are not guarantees—they're an analyst's best estimate of where the stock could go.
Why does this matter?
SpaceX is one of the most closely watched private companies in the world, known for its reusable rockets, Starlink satellite internet, and ambitious missions to Mars. While it's not publicly traded on a major exchange, its shares change hands in private markets, and its valuation is often seen as a bellwether for the broader space economy.
Morgan Stanley's analysis focuses on the company's earnings potential rather than its current profitability. By looking at 2028 estimates, Jonas is betting that SpaceX's revenue streams—particularly Starlink and launch services—will scale significantly over the next few years. The 30 times EBIT multiple is a common valuation metric for high-growth companies, though it's higher than what you'd see for more mature firms.
For everyday investors, this kind of analyst commentary can be a useful signal, but it's worth remembering that private market valuations can be volatile and less transparent than public stock prices. If you're considering exposure to SpaceX, you'd typically need to invest through a fund or a special purpose vehicle, as the company itself isn't listed on a public exchange.
What it means for investors
Morgan Stanley's “cheap and getting cheaper” call is a clear vote of confidence, but it's not a recommendation to rush out and buy. The stock's 5% jump shows that analyst opinions can move markets, especially for high-profile names like SpaceX.
Investors should also consider the broader context. The space sector has seen renewed interest recently, with companies like Nvidia grabbing headlines for AI-driven growth, but space remains a niche with high risks and high rewards. SpaceX's success depends on continued technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals, and competition from rivals like Blue Origin and Rocket Lab.
For those watching from the sidelines, the key takeaway is that analysts see long-term value in SpaceX, but the path to that value is far from guaranteed. As always, diversification and a clear understanding of your own risk tolerance are essential.
Looking ahead
Investors will likely keep an eye on SpaceX's next milestones, including Starlink's subscriber growth, Starship test flights, and any updates on its valuation in private markets. Morgan Stanley's $300 target suggests the bank expects meaningful appreciation, but other analysts may have different views.
In the meantime, the stock's recent move is a reminder that private company shares can be just as reactive to analyst commentary as public ones. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, it's always wise to do your own research and consider how any single investment fits into your broader portfolio.
