Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk has raised its full-year outlook for the second time this year, after sales of its oral version of the blockbuster obesity drug Wegovy came in ahead of expectations in the third quarter. The company is betting that the pill, which is easier to manufacture and distribute than injectable versions, can help it defend its lead in the fiercely competitive weight-loss market against US rival Eli Lilly.
Pill sales jump, injectable sales slip
Novo said sales of the Wegovy pill reached 5.39 billion Danish crowns ($810 million) in the third quarter, beating analyst forecasts. That marked a 53% jump from the previous quarter, as the pill, launched in the US in January and now available in eight markets, gains traction with patients who prefer an oral option.
The strong pill performance helped offset a 13% decline in US sales of the injectable version of Wegovy, measured at constant exchange rates to strip out currency swings. That drop reflects intensifying competition from Eli Lilly's Zepbound and other rivals, as well as pricing pressures in the US market.
Overall, Novo's adjusted sales rose to 79.20 billion Danish crowns in the quarter, above the 73.22 billion analysts had expected, according to Reuters. Adjusted operating profit climbed 27% at constant exchange rates to 31.72 billion crowns, also beating forecasts.
Why the pill matters
The pill version of Wegovy is still a small part of Novo's business — roughly 6% of expected Wegovy sales this year. But its importance goes beyond current revenue. Novo estimates it holds about 80% of US “new-to-brand” pill prescriptions, meaning the vast majority of patients starting a weight-loss pill are choosing Novo's product over competitors.
That matters because new prescriptions are the funnel for future repeat refills. If patients start on the pill and stay on it, those initial prescriptions can turn into a steady stream of revenue for years. So the pill's weekly or monthly prescription trend is a leading indicator of whether Novo can rebuild momentum while its injectable sales are falling.
“The pill is the key to Novo's growth story right now,” said one analyst, who asked not to be named. “If it keeps capturing new patients, it can offset some of the pressure in the injectable market.”
What it means for investors
For investors, the near-term story for Novo's stock may hinge less on one quarter's revenue and more on whether those pill starts keep compounding. If pill growth flattens for long, it could signal that Novo's mix shift toward pills won't be fast enough to offset the injectable slowdown.
That's especially important as Eli Lilly's competing oral obesity drug, which is in development, tries to win over new patients. If Lilly's pill reaches the market and gains traction, it could erode Novo's early lead in the oral segment.
Novo's management acknowledged the mixed picture, warning that it still assumes international growth but a US decline for the rest of the year. Still, the company felt confident enough to lift its full-year guidance again, a sign that the pill's performance is giving it more visibility.
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that Novo's growth is becoming more dependent on the pill's success. While the injectable market is getting tougher, the pill offers a potential path to sustained growth — but it's still early days, and competition is heating up.
As always, it's worth remembering that past performance isn't a guarantee of future results, and the obesity drug market is evolving rapidly. Investors should keep an eye on prescription trends and competitive developments in the coming quarters.
