RBC Capital Markets came away from meetings with Crown Holdings executives in Toronto with a bullish take: the packaging giant can keep growing its beverage-can volumes faster than the broader market. The bank's analysts pointed to two key drivers — a sales mix tilted heavily toward non-alcoholic drinks and a hefty share-buyback program planned for 2026 and 2027.
What's driving the optimism?
Crown Holdings is one of the world's largest producers of metal packaging, making aluminum cans for soft drinks, beer, and other beverages. The company's beverage-can business has been a bright spot in recent years, even as other parts of the packaging industry have faced sluggish demand.
According to RBC, Crown's sales are split roughly 80-20 between non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. That mix matters because non-alcoholic drinks — think sparkling water, energy drinks, and ready-to-drink teas — have been growing faster than beer, especially mass-market beer in the United States. Crown has only limited exposure to that slower corner of the category, which RBC says gives it room to keep taking market share.
The bank's analysts also highlighted the company's capital-return plans. Crown has said it intends to buy back $600-700 million of its own shares in 2026 and 2027. Buybacks reduce the number of shares outstanding, which can boost earnings per share and signal management's confidence in future cash flow.
Why it matters for investors
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that Crown appears well-positioned to keep growing even if the overall beverage-can market slows. The company's focus on faster-growing categories like non-alcoholic drinks gives it a structural advantage over peers that rely more on beer volumes.
The planned buybacks also provide a floor of support for the stock. When a company commits to repurchasing its own shares, it often indicates that management believes the shares are undervalued. It also returns cash to shareholders in a tax-efficient way compared to dividends.
That said, investors should keep an eye on the broader economic backdrop. Consumer spending on beverages can be sensitive to inflation and interest rates. If households tighten their budgets, even fast-growing categories like energy drinks could see slower demand. The US services sector has remained hot, but price pressures are building ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting, which could influence how much consumers have to spend.
What to watch next
Investors will be watching Crown's next earnings report for signs that the growth trend is continuing. They'll also look for updates on the buyback timeline and any changes to the company's outlook for beverage-can volumes.
RBC's note is just one analyst's view, but it adds to a growing sense that Crown has found a sweet spot in the packaging industry. The company's ability to outgrow the market, combined with a clear plan to return cash to shareholders, makes it a stock worth understanding for anyone interested in consumer staples or industrial packaging.
For context, other companies in the packaging space have faced headwinds from higher aluminum costs and shifting consumer preferences. Crown's focus on non-alcoholic beverages appears to be a deliberate strategy to avoid those pitfalls.
As always, no single analyst report should drive an investment decision. But for those who already own Crown shares, RBC's commentary is a reassuring sign that the company's growth story remains intact. For those considering a position, it's a reminder to look beyond the headline numbers and understand what's driving the underlying business.
