Retail investors are gearing up for Anthropic's Nasdaq debut on November 19, and research firm Vanda Research believes their first-day buying could be substantial enough to set a new record. Vanda estimates that roughly $250 million in net retail buying could hit the AI company's stock on its first day of trading, based on patterns observed around recent listings and on trading in "pre-IPO" perpetual futures tied to the company.
If realized, that figure would surpass the $118 million net retail buying that SpaceX attracted during its listing, which previously stood as a benchmark for retail enthusiasm. The comparison underscores the level of excitement surrounding Anthropic, a leading artificial intelligence company that has drawn significant attention from both institutional and individual investors.
What are perpetual futures and why do they matter?
Perpetual futures, often called "perps," are derivative contracts that allow traders to take long or short positions on a reference price without owning the underlying asset. In this case, contracts on platforms like Hyperliquid and Coinbase are tied to Anthropic's latest disclosed private-market valuation, not to actual deliverable shares. These instruments have become popular among retail traders as a way to speculate on a company's value before it goes public.
The activity in these perps is a key signal for Vanda's forecast. The firm uses trading patterns in these derivatives to gauge retail demand ahead of a listing. When such contracts see heavy volume and rising prices, it often indicates that retail traders are positioning for a strong debut.
However, the existence of these derivatives also introduces a layer of complexity. Because they don't create any new share supply, they can inflate expectations about demand without directly affecting the cash market. This disconnect can lead to volatility when the actual IPO begins trading.
Why heavy early demand can move prices
IPOs often start with a relatively small tradable share pool, known as a "float." When a large number of market orders arrive at once, market makers—the firms that facilitate trading—typically widen bid-ask spreads and adjust their quotes quickly to manage risk. This can result in significant price swings in the first minutes or hours of trading.
If the loudest demand signal is coming from derivatives that don't create any share supply, expectations can get pulled higher while the cash market still has to find a clearing price with limited stock available. In other words, the opening price may be driven more by the mechanics of matching buyers and sellers than by any new information about Anthropic's revenue, competition, or margins.
This dynamic is not unique to Anthropic. Many high-profile IPOs experience outsized first-day moves, only to settle down once more sellers and institutional buyers enter the market. The key question for Anthropic is whether the price swings fade after the opening auction, once trading becomes two-sided. If they don't, it could be a sign that the float is tight and that positioning, not fundamentals, is setting the price.
What it means for investors
For everyday investors, the takeaway is that first-day trading in an IPO can be unpredictable and may not reflect the company's long-term value. Heavy retail demand, while a sign of enthusiasm, can also lead to buying at prices that later correct. It's important to remember that the initial price is set by the underwriters based on institutional demand, and the opening trade can be influenced by a variety of factors unrelated to the business itself.
Vanda's $250 million call could make Anthropic's debut a real-time test of IPO liquidity. If retail flows come in as expected, the "first-day tape"—the opening print, early volatility, and trading spreads—may be driven more by market plumbing than by fundamentals. Investors watching the stock should pay attention to how quickly the price stabilizes after the opening, as that can indicate whether the market is finding a fair value.
Anthropic's IPO is part of a broader wave of tech listings that have captured investor attention. The company's valuation has been a topic of discussion, with some reports suggesting it could price above its range, as noted in our coverage of tech giants injecting $26 billion. Additionally, the company has planned a Japan-only share sale ahead of the main listing, which could affect supply dynamics.
For those considering participating in the IPO, it's worth noting that retail investors often have limited access to shares at the offering price, and buying in the open market can come with higher costs and risks. As always, it's wise to do your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
In the coming days, all eyes will be on Anthropic's debut. Whether it sets a new retail record or not, the event will provide valuable insights into how the market absorbs a highly anticipated AI stock in an environment where retail participation is at an all-time high.
