Anthropic, one of the most closely watched names in artificial intelligence, is edging closer to what could be one of the largest initial public offerings in recent memory. According to Reuters, bankers are already framing the company's value not on what it earns today, but on what it could earn in 2028—a gap that underscores both the excitement and the risk surrounding AI valuations.
The numbers behind the hype
Reuters, citing two people familiar with Anthropic's financials, reports that the company is projecting roughly $190 billion to $200 billion in revenue for 2028. That compares with a $47 billion annualized revenue "run rate" the company highlighted in May. A run rate is simply a projection of full-year revenue based on recent performance—if a company earns $4 billion in one quarter, its run rate would be $16 billion.
The chasm between $47 billion and $200 billion is why bankers are leaning on a forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiple. This valuation method prices a company as a multiple of its expected future sales, rather than its current or trailing revenue. For a company growing as fast as Anthropic, traditional metrics like price-to-earnings are less useful because profits are still far off. Instead, investors are being asked to bet on a trajectory that assumes the AI market expands dramatically over the next few years.
Why 2028 matters
Valuing a company on future revenue is not new—tech companies have long been priced on forward-looking metrics. But the scale here is striking. A $200 billion revenue target would place Anthropic in the same league as some of the world's largest tech firms, a remarkable ambition for a company that, while growing quickly, is still in its early commercial phase.
This approach also reflects a broader trend in AI investing. The sector has seen a wave of capital pouring into companies that promise to transform industries, but whose current financials are modest relative to their valuations. Nvidia's push to raise $500 billion for AI data centers is a sign of how much infrastructure spending is expected to support this growth. Similarly, Morgan Stanley's projection that Cerebras AI revenue could triple by 2027 shows that analysts are comfortable with aggressive forward estimates in this space.
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that the price you pay for a stock like Anthropic will be based on a future that may or may not materialize. If the company hits its 2028 targets, early investors could see substantial gains. But if growth slows, or if competition intensifies, the multiple could compress sharply, leading to losses.
What it means for investors
When a company goes public using forward revenue multiples, it's essentially asking investors to fund its growth in advance. That can be a good deal if the growth happens, but it also means you're taking on more risk than you would with a company that already has solid profits.
For those considering participating in an IPO like this, it's important to understand that the valuation is not based on current reality. It's based on a projection that could be wrong. Jane Street's $15 billion July loss is a reminder that even sophisticated investors can be hurt when AI trades get crowded and expectations unravel.
Also, keep an eye on the broader market. Anthropic IPO chatter has already split tech stocks, with some names rising on the news while others, like Cisco, slid. That suggests the market is paying close attention to how AI valuations are being set.
Finally, remember that an IPO is just the beginning. After the listing, the stock will trade based on quarterly results and updates to those 2028 projections. If Anthropic misses its milestones, the market could punish the stock severely. If it beats them, the stock could soar. Either way, the risk is real.
In the end, the story here is not just about Anthropic. It's about how the entire AI sector is being priced. OpenAI's recent sales revamp and the departure of its chief revenue officer show that even the biggest AI names are still figuring out how to turn hype into sustainable revenue. As an investor, your job is to weigh the promise against the price.
