Channel Infrastructure, the operator of New Zealand's Marsden Point fuel terminal, has raised its long-term outlook for fuel volumes, even as the near-term picture for jet fuel weakens. In a filing to the Australian and New Zealand stock exchanges on Tuesday, the company said an updated forecast from consultancy Envisory now expects 1.3 billion more liters to pass through the site by 2050 than its previous October 2024 estimate.
The brighter long-term view is largely driven by road fuels. Envisory now expects petrol and diesel demand to hold up longer than earlier thought, because vehicle replacement is slower and the shift to electric vehicles is more gradual than previously assumed. Auckland's population growth is also expected to support the terminal's share of national fuel demand.
Jet fuel softens near term
The weak spot is jet fuel. Envisory cut its short-run demand expectations, citing weaker passenger forecasts and high fuel prices. However, the long-term jet fuel outlook is largely unchanged. Channel Infrastructure also kept its 2026 guidance unchanged, still expecting jet fuel volumes to grow by 2%.
For everyday investors, this split matters: it shows that different fuels are on different trajectories. While road fuel demand may be stickier than once feared, aviation fuel is more sensitive to economic cycles and travel patterns.
Storage mandates become a key driver
The filing also highlighted a factor that can matter as much as consumption: government-mandated fuel stockpiles. New Zealand plans to raise its minimum diesel stockholding requirement to 28 days from 21 days in July 2028. Australia is aiming for diesel and jet fuel reserves equal to 50 days of consumption.
When governments raise these "days of cover" requirements, suppliers must keep more fuel in storage for longer. That creates compliance-driven demand for tank space at terminals like Marsden Point. Even if overall fuel use only inches along, these mandates can support steadier storage and handling fees.
For Channel Infrastructure, this nudges the story toward "capacity and compliance" rather than pure volume growth. The key swing factor into and beyond 2028 is likely to be storage availability and contract terms, not just whether petrol, diesel, or jet fuel demand comes in a bit above or below forecast.
What it means for investors
For investors, the revised outlook offers a more stable picture of fuel demand than the headline numbers might suggest. The terminal's earnings are increasingly tied to how much fuel sits in its tanks, not just how much flows through them. That could make revenue less sensitive to monthly swings in fuel consumption.
Still, there are risks. If the shift to electric vehicles accelerates faster than expected, or if air travel remains weak, the long-term volume picture could change. And while storage mandates provide a floor, they also depend on government policy staying in place.
Channel Infrastructure's update comes amid a broader backdrop of shifting energy demand and policy. Investors watching the energy sector have seen similar themes play out elsewhere, such as in how oil price moves affect stock markets and how fuel prices influence currencies. The key takeaway here is that fuel infrastructure can remain valuable even as the energy transition unfolds, as long as the tanks stay full.
