Wall Street may be looking at Grand Theft Auto VI the wrong way. While many investors are bracing for a single blockbuster launch, Wedbush Securities argues the real opportunity lies in the years after the game hits shelves.
In a note released Monday, the investment bank said it expects Take-Two Interactive's total bookings to climb from $6.7 billion in fiscal 2027 to $9.2 billion in fiscal 2029. Crucially, Wedbush says that later figure excludes the initial launch rush, pointing to a long tail of catalog sales and in-game spending that could keep the cash flowing well beyond the first few months.
What are 'bookings' and why do they matter?
For video game companies like Take-Two, bookings are a key metric. They represent the money the company records from game sales, downloadable content, and in-game purchases during a period, even if some of that revenue is recognized later. It's a forward-looking measure that investors watch closely because it reflects the actual cash coming in from players.
Take-Two's fiscal year runs from April to March, so fiscal 2027 would cover roughly April 2026 to March 2027, and fiscal 2029 would run through March 2029. The company has already said GTA VI is slated for a fall 2026 release, which means the launch window would fall squarely in fiscal 2027.
Wedbush's projection suggests that while the launch will be huge, the real money could come afterward. The firm points to catalog sales—older games that continue to sell—and a pipeline of post-launch content, including online modes and expansions, as key drivers.
Why investors might be underestimating the long run
The concern among some investors is that GTA VI could be a 'one-time' event, similar to a blockbuster movie that makes most of its money in the opening weekend. But Wedbush argues that Grand Theft Auto V, the previous installment, has proven the opposite. Released in 2013, GTA V has continued to generate billions in revenue through its online mode, GTA Online, and repeated re-releases on new consoles.
That history suggests GTA VI could follow a similar pattern, with players spending on in-game currency, new content, and expansions for years after the initial purchase. Wedbush's forecast of $9.2 billion in fiscal 2029—two years after launch—implies that the game's revenue won't just fade away.
The firm also notes that Take-Two's broader portfolio, including other franchises like NBA 2K and Red Dead Redemption, could contribute to the growth, but GTA VI is clearly the centerpiece.
What it means for investors
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that Take-Two's stock price may not fully reflect the long-term potential of GTA VI. If Wedbush is right, the company could see a steady stream of revenue for years, not just a one-time spike.
However, it's important to remember that forecasts are just that—forecasts. Game development delays, shifts in player behavior, or a less-than-stellar reception could change the picture. Investors should also consider that Take-Two's stock has already priced in some optimism, given the hype around GTA VI.
Wedbush's view is a reminder that in the gaming industry, the biggest hits often have a long tail. As recent market volatility shows, tech and entertainment stocks can swing sharply on sentiment, but fundamentals like recurring revenue can provide a cushion.
For now, the market seems to be treating GTA VI like a movie premiere. Wedbush thinks it's more like a franchise that keeps paying off. Only time will tell which view is correct.
