Elon Musk has set an ambitious new revenue target for SpaceX, saying the company could generate about $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033. That would pull the milestone forward by seven years compared with a Morgan Stanley forecast that sees the same figure arriving in 2040.
Musk made the comment in a post on X, responding to Aaron Burnett, CEO of Mach 33, who had called Morgan Stanley's long-range model for SpaceX "highly conservative." The exchange highlights the widening gap between Wall Street's cautious projections and Musk's own bullish outlook for his rocket company.
What's driving the optimism?
The core of the debate is Starship, SpaceX's next-generation rocket system. Unlike the company's current Falcon rockets, Starship is designed to be fully reusable and capable of carrying vastly larger payloads into orbit. That design is meant to slash the cost of launching cargo and people into space, potentially opening up markets that don't exist today.
Morgan Stanley's 2040 forecast is built on the assumption that Starship will gradually expand the space economy, enabling everything from massive satellite constellations to space-based manufacturing and even tourism. Musk's 2033 target suggests he believes that growth will come much faster.
It's worth noting that Musk has a history of setting aggressive timelines for his companies, from Tesla's self-driving promises to SpaceX's Mars ambitions. Some of those deadlines have slipped, but the underlying technologies have often advanced more quickly than skeptics expected.
What does this mean for investors?
SpaceX is not publicly traded, so everyday investors can't buy shares directly. But the company's valuation and prospects ripple through the broader market in several ways.
First, SpaceX's success has helped fuel a boom in the space industry, with a growing number of publicly traded companies involved in satellite manufacturing, launch services, and space tourism. If Starship delivers on its promise, those companies could see increased demand for their services.
Second, SpaceX's valuation—already among the highest of any private company—affects the portfolios of venture capital funds and institutional investors that hold stakes. Those investors include some mutual funds and ETFs that track private companies, though exposure is often limited.
Third, the timeline matters. A $3.5 trillion revenue figure is almost unimaginable by today's standards—it would make SpaceX one of the largest companies on Earth by revenue, far exceeding giants like Apple or Saudi Aramco. For context, the entire global space economy was estimated at under $500 billion in recent years. Even the most optimistic projections see it growing to a few trillion by 2040.
So Musk's 2033 target is not just a tweak to a forecast; it's a bet that Starship will fundamentally transform the economics of space access, creating entirely new industries that don't yet exist.
What to watch next
Investors will be watching for concrete milestones from Starship. The rocket has completed several test flights, but it has yet to achieve full operational status. Key indicators include the frequency of successful launches, the cost per launch, and the pace of commercial contracts.
Morgan Stanley's forecast, while more conservative, still assumes significant growth. The bank's analysts have pointed to Starship as the key driver, but they see a longer runway for the market to mature.
For now, Musk's comment is a reminder that the space race is not just about rockets—it's about the potential to unlock a new economic frontier. Whether that happens by 2033 or 2040, the direction is clear: space is becoming a bigger part of the global economy.
In the meantime, investors in the broader tech and industrial sectors might keep an eye on how SpaceX's progress affects sentiment. A major Starship success could boost enthusiasm for space-related stocks, while delays could temper expectations.
As with any Musk prediction, the key is to separate the vision from the timeline. The vision is bold; the timeline may be optimistic. But that's often how transformative technologies work—they arrive later than promised, but they arrive.
