UBS Securities believes Ferrari's upcoming second-quarter earnings report could set the stage for a guidance upgrade in 2026. The bank projects sales growth of 6% for the luxury automaker, driven by a shift toward higher-priced models and customization options rather than a surge in vehicle shipments.
In a research note published Thursday, UBS analysts said Ferrari has described 2025 as a "balanced year," but they expect momentum to build through the second half. The bank forecasts about 5% growth in the Cars & Spare Parts segment, powered by what it calls "price mix" — selling more expensive vehicles and options — along with paid personalization services that carry high profit margins.
AI Wealth and Luxury Demand
UBS also highlighted a broader trend that could benefit Ferrari and other high-end brands: new wealth generated by artificial intelligence-related businesses in the United States. The bank argues that this AI-driven wealth is keeping luxury demand steadier than many investors had feared, even as some consumer segments show signs of strain.
This matters because luxury automakers like Ferrari are often valued based on their ability to maintain pricing power over time. If wealthy buyers remain willing to pay premium prices for exclusive models and custom features, Ferrari can sustain its high valuation without needing to dramatically increase production volumes.
The broader luxury sector has faced uncertainty this year, with some brands reporting softer demand in key markets. However, UBS's analysis suggests that the top end of the market — where Ferrari operates — may be more resilient, particularly as AI-related fortunes create new pools of wealth. This dynamic could help the luxury sector recover, as investors often price these brands based on confidence in future pricing power.
What to Watch on the Earnings Call
UBS expects Ferrari's earnings call to focus less on headline numbers and more on forward-looking demand signals. Key areas to watch include the order book, which shows future orders; whether personalization trends are still rising; and what management says about used-car prices and leasing economics.
"Residual values" — the price a Ferrari fetches in the used market — are a critical factor for the company's business model. When used-car prices hold up, leasing payments become more attractive for customers, and trade-ins can cover a larger portion of the next purchase. This lowers the total cost of ownership for buyers and allows Ferrari to raise list prices and sell more high-margin custom add-ons without needing a big jump in deliveries.
UBS's $497 price target for Ferrari stock leans on used-car prices remaining firm. If the order book stays strong and residual values remain resilient, a future guidance upgrade starts to look like a believable pricing story, which is what can justify Ferrari's premium valuation even in a so-called balanced year.
Broader Market Context
Ferrari's performance comes against a mixed backdrop for the auto industry. Recent data showed US auto sales were flat in Q2, with hybrids surging and affluent buyers propping up the market. Meanwhile, GM's Q2 US sales dipped 4.2% as electric vehicle demand softened, though trucks held steady.
In Europe, Italy's May jobs data and June car sales signaled consumer health, which could support Ferrari's home market. However, rubber prices have slid as China auto sales forecasts were slashed and oil hit lows, highlighting challenges in the broader automotive supply chain.
What It Means for Investors
For everyday investors, UBS's analysis suggests that Ferrari's stock performance may hinge less on quarterly sales numbers and more on the durability of its pricing power. The company's ability to charge premium prices and sell high-margin customizations — rather than simply shipping more cars — is what supports its elevated valuation.
If used-car prices stay strong and the order book remains robust, Ferrari could raise its guidance in 2026, which would likely boost the stock. Conversely, any signs of weakening demand or falling residual values could pressure the shares.
Investors should also watch the broader luxury market. If AI-driven wealth continues to support high-end spending, Ferrari and similar brands could benefit. But if economic conditions deteriorate or luxury demand softens, even Ferrari's premium positioning may not fully shield it from a downturn.
As always, past performance and analyst projections are not guarantees of future results. Investors should consider their own financial situation and risk tolerance before making any decisions.
