French media giant Canal+ is set to report its interim results on July 28th, but investors are less focused on the headline numbers and more on deciphering the health of its South African subsidiary, MultiChoice. The challenge, according to analysts at BofA Global Research, is that several moving parts make the first-half picture unusually hard to read.
What's happening with MultiChoice?
MultiChoice, the pay-TV and streaming operator that Canal+ acquired, has been a major focus since the deal closed. Investors are watching for signs that its business in South Africa is stabilizing after a period of decline. BofA notes that the first-half results are complicated by the integration of MultiChoice into Canal+'s group numbers, cost and synergy plans, and the underlying trend in Canal+'s legacy TV business.
A key complication is Showmax, MultiChoice's streaming service, which ended on April 30th 2026. Showmax will now be reported as "discontinued operations" in both the first half of 2025 and the first half of 2026. This accounting shift moves revenue and profit between reporting buckets, making year-on-year comparisons noisy just when investors want a clean view of momentum.
Even with that distortion, BofA expects MultiChoice's first-half 2026 revenue to fall about 3% from a year earlier. That would be an improvement from the roughly 6% drop in the first quarter, helped by seasonal factors such as major sports events and steadiness in smaller markets. For context, MultiChoice contributed €1.24 billion of revenue and €55 million of adjusted operating profit in the first half of 2025.
Canal+'s own numbers
Separately, BofA forecasts Canal+ first-half revenue of €4.29 billion and adjusted operating profit of €368 million, up 6% on a pro forma basis. The bank does not expect a change to 2026 guidance. However, the headline figures will be harder to interpret because of the reclassification of Showmax.
When a business is reclassified as "discontinued operations," headline growth can reflect bookkeeping as much as demand. Results get split between "continuing" and "discontinued" lines, and the group's mix shifts. So July 28th will likely be judged less on whether Canal+ lands near BofA's forecasts and more on what management says about underlying trends once you strip out consolidation and classification noise.
What it means for investors
For investors, the key takeaway is that MultiChoice's performance remains the swing factor. Because it was €1.24 billion of revenue in the first half of 2025, the market can move on small changes in confidence about its stabilization path, even if the expected first-half 2026 decline of about 3% is partly a calendar effect. If the results and commentary don't reduce that uncertainty, investors may keep applying a risk discount to Canal+'s longer-term earnings outlook.
This uncertainty comes amid broader market dynamics. For instance, the US dollar has been strengthening, which can impact emerging market currencies like the South African rand and affect MultiChoice's reported results. Additionally, investors are watching how Canal+ navigates a media landscape where streaming services are under pressure, as seen in the volatility in other sectors.
The July 28th report will be a critical test of whether Canal+ can provide the clarity investors need. Until then, the market is likely to remain cautious, with the MultiChoice question hanging over the stock.
