Every month, the Finimize research team puts its investment ideas under the microscope to see how they've performed. This July update covers the SpaceX IPO, SK Hynix, and several defense stocks, tracking every open trade and strategy since the portfolio's launch in October 2024.
Since that launch, the portfolio's ideas have delivered an average return of 32%, outperforming their benchmarks by 18 percentage points. The "hit rate" — the percentage of calls that made money — stands at 69%, meaning most recommendations have been profitable.
SpaceX IPO: A Blockbuster Debut
SpaceX, Elon Musk's rockets-to-AI company, went public on June 12th in the largest initial public offering in history, raising $85.7 billion. The stock debuted at $135 per share and initially surged, peaking on June 16th before pulling back. It still trades comfortably above the IPO price.
Analyst Reda built a sum-of-the-parts valuation model for SpaceX, estimating the company's fair value at around $1.3 trillion. That's about 28% below the $1.8 trillion valuation the market assigned on IPO day. But markets don't always follow fundamentals, especially in hype-driven environments. Overvalued stocks can — and often do — go from expensive to very expensive.
Before the IPO, Reda argued that buying at the offer price was the best strategy, rather than chasing the first-day surge. That was unusually realistic because SpaceX reserved a hefty allocation for retail investors. The logic: a small free float — the percentage of shares available for trading — combined with demand from Musk's fan base and passive funds tracking indexes, would drive the stock higher. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell changed rules to allow SpaceX to join their flagship indexes soon after its IPO, and MSCI already had rules for fast-tracking exceptionally large listings.
The biggest catalyst may still be ahead. SpaceX won't officially join Nasdaq's indexes until July 6th, which means the largest wave of forced buying from passive funds is yet to come. The first lockup expiry — when insiders can sell shares — doesn't happen until late August. That creates a potentially powerful situation: lots of index-fund demand and limited supply, which should, in theory, boost the share price.
Three Key Developments Since the IPO
First, SpaceX announced it's acquiring Anysphere, the company behind AI coding assistant Cursor, in a deal valuing the startup at $60 billion. The move has both strategic logic and risks. On the positive side, Anysphere gets computing power, while SpaceX gains a foothold in AI coding tools. Cursor recently reached a $4 billion annualized revenue run rate, up from $1 billion seven months earlier. Paying with stock dilutes existing shareholders by just 3.3%. On the negative side, spending data from Ramp suggests Anthropic's Claude is taking market share from Cursor. SpaceX's willingness to fund the deal entirely with stock could signal management thinks its own shares are generously priced. There's also a risk that redirecting computing power toward Cursor swaps predictable rental income for a bet on future earnings. And if Musk pushes Cursor to favor Grok over other AI models, customers might not stick around.
Second, SpaceX signed a $1.8-billion-a-year deal to lease computing capacity to AI startup Reflection, building on earlier agreements with Google and Anthropic. Combined, the three contracts are set to generate roughly $27.8 billion in annual revenue — more than SpaceX made in all of 2025.
Third, SpaceX issued a $25 billion bond sale less than two weeks after its IPO, which was nearly four times oversubscribed. This financial engineering allows the company to take advantage of its new investment-grade credit rating.
What This Means for Investors
The Finimize Portfolio's track record — 32% average returns, 18 percentage points above benchmarks, and a 69% hit rate — suggests the research process has been effective. But past performance doesn't guarantee future results. The SpaceX IPO illustrates how hype can drive valuations above fundamental estimates, creating both opportunities and risks.
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is to understand the dynamics at play: index inclusion, lockup expiries, and corporate actions like acquisitions and bond sales can all move stock prices in ways that aren't always tied to fundamentals. The portfolio's analysts are watching these factors closely and making adjustments as new information emerges.
Defense stocks and SK Hynix remain under review, with the broader backdrop of AI-driven demand for chips and geopolitical tensions supporting those sectors. The chip stocks post record quarter as the AI boom continues, while defense stocks rise on increased government spending commitments.
Investors should keep an eye on the July 6th index inclusion date for SpaceX, as well as the late August lockup expiry. The bond sale's oversubscription signals strong institutional confidence, but the Anysphere acquisition introduces execution risk. As always, the portfolio's analysts will continue to track these developments and adjust their views accordingly.
