US stock futures were mostly flat on Monday as the third-quarter earnings season got underway, with investors holding their breath for a wave of corporate results and fresh economic data. The muted start to the week reflects a market waiting for information that could reset expectations, rather than one making bold bets in either direction.
What's on the calendar
This week brings a heavy slate of earnings from some of the biggest names in finance and technology, including JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, ASML, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing. These bellwethers often set the tone for the broader market, as their results offer a glimpse into the health of consumer spending, corporate borrowing, and global demand for chips.
Alongside the earnings, investors are also watching two key economic reports: the producer price index (PPI) and retail sales for September. PPI measures the prices companies pay for goods and services before they reach consumers, making it an early signal for inflation. Retail sales, meanwhile, show how much consumers are spending, which is a crucial driver of economic growth.
When futures barely move, it usually signals that traders are waiting for these kinds of data points to provide direction. The combination of earnings and inflation data could easily shift market sentiment in either direction.
Oil climbs after Riyadh attacks
Oil prices moved in the opposite direction, rising after weekend attacks in Riyadh. The attacks added to geopolitical tensions in the Gulf region, a key oil-producing area, and lifted both Brent and US crude prices. Higher energy prices can filter through to transport and manufacturing costs, which is exactly the kind of thing investors watch ahead of inflation data.
If oil stays elevated, it could put upward pressure on the PPI reading and complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to bring inflation down. That's a key reason why energy moves are being closely monitored this week.
ASML's reported price hike and chip costs
Outside the headlines, single-stock moves showed how quickly company-specific costs can matter. The Elec, a tech trade outlet, reported that ASML may raise replacement-part prices by 10% for some of its lithography machines sold to South Korea starting in January 2027. Memory-chip maker SK Hynix fell 2.3% on the news.
For chipmakers, lithography tools aren't just a big upfront purchase: keeping them running requires constant maintenance and a steady flow of replacement parts. If those parts get pricier, the cost of producing each wafer rises, squeezing gross margins unless companies can offset it with better prices, higher productivity, or fewer breakdowns.
That sensitivity is why SK Hynix reacted to a change that's still more than a year away. Memory chips are a cyclical business, and when selling prices are under pressure, even small increases in per-wafer costs can have an outsized effect on profits.
What it means for investors
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that markets are in a waiting mode. The coming days will bring a flood of information that could move stocks, bonds, and commodities. Earnings from big banks often set the tone for the financial sector, while tech earnings from ASML and TSMC can influence the broader tech trade.
The PPI and retail sales data will also be crucial. If inflation comes in hot, it could raise concerns about further interest rate hikes, which tend to pressure stock valuations. If retail sales are weak, it could signal that consumers are pulling back, which would be a red flag for the economy.
Investors should also keep an eye on oil prices, as sustained increases could feed into inflation and affect everything from airline stocks to consumer goods companies. The Riyadh attacks have added a geopolitical risk premium to oil, and any further escalation could keep prices elevated.
As always, it's important to remember that markets are forward-looking. The data and earnings this week will help investors gauge whether the economy is slowing, inflation is cooling, and corporate profits are holding up. That's why the flat futures on Monday are not a sign of complacency, but rather a market bracing for a week that could set the direction for the months ahead.
For more on how earnings season is shaping up, see our look at Goldman's upgrade of global stocks and the looming bank earnings and CPI data.
