TC Energy, one of North America's largest pipeline operators, is betting on continued growth in natural gas demand. The company said it now expects higher adjusted core earnings in 2026 and approved roughly C$3 billion in new projects to expand its gas pipeline network.
The Calgary-based company lifted its 2026 forecast for adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) to C$11.8 billion to C$12.0 billion, up from a previous range of C$11.6 billion to C$11.8 billion. The new outlook reflects both the approved projects and the company's view that gas volumes will keep rising across North America.
What's driving the expansion?
TC Energy's growth plans center on two major projects. The Crossroads project, with a price tag of about $1.8 billion, and a $400 million Midwest project together aim to add 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas transportation capacity. That's enough gas to supply millions of homes and businesses, and it underscores the company's confidence in long-term demand.
The push comes as North American natural gas consumption continues to climb, fueled by power generation, industrial use, and exports. While gas prices can swing widely, pipeline companies like TC Energy are less exposed to those swings. Many of their contracts are fee-based, meaning customers pay a set toll to move gas through the pipes regardless of the commodity price. That makes earnings more predictable and less volatile than producers' profits.
This business model is why pipeline operators are often seen as steady, income-oriented investments. They generate consistent cash flow, which supports dividends and share buybacks. For investors, the key metric is usually volume—how much gas is moving through the system—rather than the price of the gas itself.
What it means for investors
For everyday investors, TC Energy's updated guidance is a signal that the company sees durable demand for its infrastructure. The raised forecast suggests management expects the new projects to contribute meaningfully to earnings by 2026, and that the existing pipeline network will continue to run at healthy utilization rates.
It's also a reminder that energy infrastructure can be a different kind of energy investment. While oil and gas producers' profits rise and fall with commodity prices, pipeline companies often offer more stability. That can be attractive in a portfolio, especially when energy prices are volatile.
However, investors should note that TC Energy's projects are large and take time to build. The Crossroads and Midwest projects won't add capacity overnight. Construction costs, regulatory approvals, and potential delays are all risks. And while the company raised its outlook, that forecast is still subject to changes in demand and the broader economy.
TC Energy's move also fits a broader trend in the energy sector. Several companies have been boosting shareholder returns as they benefit from strong energy markets. But TC Energy's focus is on long-term infrastructure rather than short-term price spikes.
For those watching the sector, the next thing to look for is how quickly TC Energy can bring these projects online and whether it can secure additional contracts to fill the new capacity. The company's ability to execute on its growth plans will be key to meeting its 2026 targets.
In the meantime, the raised outlook is a positive sign for investors who value steady, fee-based earnings. It suggests TC Energy is confident enough in the future of natural gas to keep investing billions in new pipelines—even as the world debates the pace of the energy transition.
As always, no single company's forecast is a reason to buy or sell. But understanding how pipeline economics work can help investors make more informed decisions about energy holdings.
