The Bank of Canada hasn't seen artificial intelligence dramatically reshape the country's labour market—at least not yet. But new research from the central bank suggests AI may already be leaving a mark in a subtler way: slower hiring in the jobs most exposed to automation.
In a working paper, the Bank of Canada's researchers measured AI exposure across occupations and found the average exposure index hit 0.29 in 2025. That number is a gauge of how much a given job could be affected by AI tools. The higher the score, the more a role's tasks overlap with what AI can do. A score of 0.29 means the average Canadian worker is in a job where roughly 29% of tasks could be touched by AI—a meaningful share, though not a majority.
The researchers also found that job-finding rates—the pace at which unemployed workers land new positions—have weakened most in occupations with high AI exposure. Receptionists and accountants were among the roles where hiring has slowed the most. These are jobs that involve routine data processing, scheduling, bookkeeping, and other tasks that AI language models and software can increasingly handle.
Why hiring slows before layoffs
Economists often note that companies adjust to new technology by first changing how they hire, not by firing people. If a firm thinks AI can do part of a job, it may simply not replace a worker who leaves, or it may post fewer openings for that role. That matches what the Bank of Canada is seeing: AI's effect is showing up in the flow of people into jobs, not in a sudden wave of layoffs.
This is a common pattern with past technological shifts. When spreadsheets arrived, for example, bookkeepers weren't all instantly unemployed—but fewer new bookkeeping jobs were created. The same dynamic appears to be playing out with AI, only faster because the technology is improving so quickly.
The Bank of Canada's research is careful not to overstate the case. The central bank says AI hasn't obviously reshaped the job market in a broad, visible way. The effects are concentrated in specific occupations, and the overall unemployment rate hasn't moved dramatically because of AI alone. But the slowdown in hiring for exposed roles is a signal worth watching.
What it means for the economy and investors
For everyday investors, this research matters for a few reasons. First, it offers a window into how AI might affect the broader economy. If AI slows hiring in administrative and clerical roles, it could keep wage growth in check in those sectors, which feeds into inflation and interest rate decisions. The Bank of Canada, like other central banks, watches the labour market closely when setting rates. A softer hiring environment could, over time, argue for lower interest rates—though the central bank has not signalled any such move based on this research alone.
Second, the findings highlight which parts of the economy are most exposed to AI. Companies that sell AI tools or use them to cut costs could see productivity gains, while firms heavily reliant on routine clerical work might face pressure to adapt. For investors, that's a reminder to look at how the companies you own are positioned for automation. A business that's investing in AI to improve efficiency may be better placed than one that's still doing things the old way.
Third, the research underscores a broader theme: AI's economic impact is likely to be gradual and uneven, not a sudden shock. That's consistent with what other central banks and economists have found. It also means the investment opportunities—and risks—from AI will probably play out over years, not months.
What to watch next
Investors should keep an eye on labour market data in the coming quarters. If job-finding rates continue to weaken in AI-exposed occupations, that could show up in the unemployment rate and in wage data. It could also influence the Bank of Canada's rate decisions, which in turn affect everything from mortgage rates to stock valuations.
The research also fits into a broader global picture. Central banks in other countries, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are studying AI's effect on jobs. The Fed's recent rate hold and its focus on labour market resilience show how central banks are balancing AI-driven productivity gains against potential job displacement.
For Canadian investors, the Bank of Canada's findings are a useful reminder that the job market is a key driver of the economy. Canada's saving rate has been in focus lately, and a softer hiring environment could affect consumer spending and corporate earnings. The TSX's recent moves have been tied to trade headlines, but labour market trends are just as important for the long-term outlook.
The bottom line: AI hasn't upended Canada's job market overnight, but it's already influencing who gets hired. For investors, that's a signal to pay attention to how companies and the economy adapt—because the effects will show up in earnings, rates, and market performance over time.
