Economy
Central banks, inflation, jobs and growth, and the policy decisions that shape the cycle.
Tariff Refunds Push US Budget Back Into Deficit in June
The US Treasury reported a $120 billion deficit in June, driven by customs duty refunds that outpaced collections after Trump-era tariffs we
New Zealand Central Bank Warns Oil Prices Could Force More Rate Hikes
New Zealand's central bank is signaling further rate hikes may be needed as higher oil prices threaten to keep inflation sticky. The warning
New Zealand Business Confidence Rebounds as Fuel Costs Ease, but RBNZ Tightening Continues
New Zealand businesses are feeling more optimistic as fuel prices cool, with NZIER's survey showing a net 8% of firms expect conditions to i
Fed Officials Split on Next Rate Move as Core Inflation Stays Stubbornly High
Federal Reserve officials are divided on the path for interest rates. Governor Christopher Waller says the next decision hinges on core infl
Goldman Sachs and UBS Predict Rare Negative US Inflation in June as Energy Costs Fall
Goldman Sachs and UBS expect June's US inflation to turn negative month over month, driven by falling energy prices. The rare dip could shif
Ethiopia Hikes Key Rate to 16% as Inflation Accelerates to 13.4%
Ethiopia's central bank lifted its main interest rate to 16% and loosened some foreign-exchange rules after May inflation accelerated to 13.
Canada's June Jobs Report: Part-Time Gains Mask Manufacturing Weakness
Canada's June jobs report appeared strong, but Rosenberg Research says the gains were driven by part-time and World Cup-related hiring. Good
China's Premier Li Qiang Pledges More Economic Support as Growth Slows
China's Premier Li Qiang has urged officials to step up counter-cyclical adjustment as the economy shows signs of cooling. Analysts expect s
India's Inflation Tops RBI Target as Food and Fuel Costs Surge in June
India's retail inflation rose to 4.38% in June, crossing the RBI's 4% target for the first time in 17 months. Food and fuel costs pushed pri
Bank of Canada Expected to Hold Rate at 2.25% as Economy Shows Resilience
TD Economics expects the Bank of Canada to hold its key rate at 2.25% at Wednesday's meeting. Strong trade and jobs data give the central ba
AI Researchers and Nobel Laureates Urge Governments to Act Faster on Job Disruption
A coalition of more than 200 researchers, including 15 Nobel laureates and leaders from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google DeepMind, is urging go
India's Inflation Tops RBI Target as Food and Fuel Costs Surge in June
India's inflation rose to 4.38% in June, above the central bank's 4% target, as food and fuel prices climbed. The reading puts pressure on t