Economy
Central banks, inflation, jobs and growth, and the policy decisions that shape the cycle.
NAB sees slower Australian growth but resilient consumer spending
National Australia Bank expects the economy to cool to about 1.3% growth this year, with the RBA keeping rates at 4.35% into 2027. Yet its o
Australia's job market cools, boosting odds of RBA rate pause
Australia's job market cooled in July as unemployment ticked up to 4.5% and employment fell by 15,800. The softer data gives the Reserve Ban
Japan's factory activity accelerates in August on AI chip demand
Japan's manufacturing sector picked up speed in August, with a key survey showing the fastest rise in new orders since January 2018. Semicon
Australia's private sector grows in August, but manufacturing slips into contraction
Australia's private sector expanded for a third straight month in August, but the growth was uneven. Services remained solidly in expansion
UK consumer confidence hits two-year high as big-ticket spending plans firm up
GfK's UK consumer confidence index climbed to -14 in August, its highest in two years, beating expectations. Households feel more comfortabl
Factory Surveys Signal Stronger US Summer as AI Investment Rises
The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index jumped to 47.4 in August, and the Conference Board's leading indicators rose 0.2% in July. The da
Banxico Signals Patience on Rate Cuts as Inflation Cools
Banxico's minutes show a unanimous hold at 6.5%, with policymakers wary of services inflation. The bank sees inflation returning to 3% only
Bank of Canada: AI may already be slowing hiring in exposed jobs
The Bank of Canada says AI hasn't obviously reshaped the job market yet, but its researchers find hiring is slowing most in roles like recep
Latin America's Growth Steady but Slow, UN Forecast Shows
The UN's ECLAC sees Latin America expanding 2.2% in 2025 and averaging about 2.3% annually through 2027. Inflation is easing toward targets,
UK economy was bigger than thought in 2023 and 2024, ONS says
The ONS quietly revised UK growth up for 2023 and 2024, putting 2024 output at £2.905 trillion. The changes come from better estimates of se
US Jobless Claims Drop to 206,000, Beating Forecasts
New US jobless claims fell to 206,000, beating forecasts of 210,000. The four-week average ticked up and continuing claims rose to 1.799 mil
AI's inflation cure may take longer than markets hope, BOE research warns
AI could eventually boost productivity, but a Bank of England research note warns the spending rush to build AI systems may heat up demand b