Finnish telecom equipment maker Nokia is set to report its third-quarter results on Thursday, and the number investors will be watching most closely is not revenue or profit, but how much new AI-related business the company booked during the period. According to Bank of America (BofA), the market is looking for roughly €2 billion or more in AI-related orders. Anything meaningfully below that could disappoint, the bank warns.
Why order intake matters
When Nokia books an order, it is effectively logging demand that can later turn into revenue once the gear ships. This “order intake” is a leading indicator: it shapes expectations for the next few quarters because it shows how much business is already in the pipeline. For a company like Nokia, which sells networking equipment to telecom operators and data-center operators, a strong order book gives investors confidence that future sales are more predictable.
BofA Global Research, the bank’s analyst unit, estimates that the €2 billion-plus target is built from about €1.6 billion or more of optical networking orders plus roughly €400 million or more of data-center switch orders. Even so, the bank expects a step down from the second quarter’s €2.8 billion, because one large switch win was timed earlier. That means Thursday’s print is less about the absolute number and more about whether it lands near the €2 billion bar.
What investors will listen for
Beyond the order tally, investors will also pay close attention to what Nokia says about its outlook. The company could lift its fiscal-year 2026 guidance if supply loosens, or it could keep guidance steady while emphasizing how much it can produce in fiscal-year 2027. The mix of orders matters too: BofA notes that switches usually carry higher margins and keep customers tied in longer than optical projects. So steady switch demand can do more to support confidence in earnings than a reliance on big optical builds.
The broader backdrop is one of surging demand for AI infrastructure. Companies across the tech world are racing to build data centers and upgrade networks to handle AI workloads, and Nokia is one of the suppliers hoping to benefit. The surge in data-center orders has been a theme across the sector, and Nokia’s results will be another data point on whether that demand is translating into actual contracts.
What it means for investors
For markets, BofA’s €2 billion AI-orders bar is a confidence test for Nokia’s fiscal-year 2026 story. If orders come in around €2 billion or more, it signals that demand is still landing in a way Nokia can convert into backlog, making it easier for investors to believe the company can hit, or even raise, its fiscal-year 2026 targets. And if that total includes a healthy share of switches—BofA’s framework is about €400 million or more—it suggests Nokia is winning stickier, higher-margin work rather than relying mainly on large optical projects.
But if orders come in well below €2 billion, markets may treat it as a sign that fiscal-year 2026 expectations depend on production limits or timing, pushing the debate toward fiscal-year 2027 capacity instead of near-term delivery. That could weigh on the stock, as investors would have to wait longer for the payoff from the AI boom.
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that Nokia’s stock price is likely to move on Thursday based on this order figure and the company’s commentary. A strong number could boost confidence in the company’s growth story, while a weak one could raise doubts. As always, it’s worth remembering that one quarter’s results are just one data point, and that order intake can be lumpy from quarter to quarter.
Nokia’s results come amid a broader rally in AI-related stocks, with AI chip orders lifting markets and Nvidia’s GPU orders hitting $35 billion. The company’s performance will be watched as a gauge of whether the AI infrastructure buildout is broadening beyond the biggest chip makers.
Investors should also keep an eye on how Nokia frames its capacity for fiscal-year 2027. If the company talks up its ability to produce more gear next year, that could offset any near-term disappointment in orders. Conversely, if it keeps guidance steady and emphasizes production limits, the market may focus on the longer-term opportunity rather than the immediate quarter.
In short, Thursday’s report is a moment of truth for Nokia’s AI ambitions. The €2 billion order bar is the line in the sand, and how the company navigates it will likely set the tone for its stock in the coming weeks.
