August brought a welcome reprieve for investors after a rocky summer. US stocks climbed to fresh record highs around the middle of the month, Nvidia's earnings reignited enthusiasm for the AI trade, and bitcoin pushed back above $80,000 for the first time since May. For our research picks, the rebound was a chance to shine—and many of them did.
But it wasn't all smooth sailing. Bond investors faced a rough patch as a sharp selloff in 30-year US Treasuries pushed yields to their highest level since 2007, before the US Treasury stepped in with dramatic buying to calm the market. That volatility is a reminder that even in a good month, not every corner of the market moves in the same direction.
How our picks have performed
Since our ideas launched in October 2024, they've delivered an average return of 25%, beaten their benchmarks by nine percentage points, and posted a 69% “hit rate”—meaning the majority of our calls have made money. Those numbers reflect the cumulative effect of our monthly reviews, where we revisit each open idea, check the results, and decide whether to hold, adjust, or close.
August's market conditions were particularly favorable for several of our equity picks. The record highs in US stocks, driven by strong corporate earnings and optimism around artificial intelligence, lifted many of our tech and growth-oriented ideas. Nvidia's earnings, in particular, gave the AI trade a fresh boost, and our picks in that space benefited accordingly.
Bitcoin's climb above $80,000 also helped our crypto-related ideas. The digital asset had been trading below that level since May, and its recovery in August signaled renewed risk appetite among investors. For those who followed our calls, the rebound was a welcome reversal after a period of uncertainty.
What didn't work
Not every pick was a winner. The bond market was a notable sore spot. The selloff in long-dated Treasuries pushed yields to multi-decade highs, which hurt any fixed-income ideas we had in play. The US Treasury's intervention—buying bonds in a dramatic fashion—helped stabilize the market, but not before some damage was done.
Our analysts are also keeping a close eye on macro data that could affect our picks. For instance, US factory growth cooled in August, while price pressures remained elevated—a combination that could complicate the Federal Reserve's path. Similarly, Germany's manufacturing sector showed surprising strength, with its PMI jumping to 54.3 on strong orders, which could have implications for European equities and the euro.
Other regional data points are mixed. Canada's factory growth cooled as US tariffs loom, and South Africa's factory slump deepened, with its PMI falling to 45.8. These trends matter because they affect the earnings outlook for companies in those regions, and we adjust our picks accordingly.
What we're changing now
This month's review has led to several adjustments. In equities, we're trimming some positions that have run up significantly and locking in profits, while adding to areas where we see more upside. In crypto, we're maintaining our exposure but with a cautious eye on volatility. In bonds, we're being more selective, focusing on shorter durations to reduce interest-rate risk.
Our analysts are also watching the broader economic backdrop. The Loonie's August rally stalled as US-Canada trade talks collapsed, which could affect Canadian equities and the currency. And BYD's August sales rose 17.8% with exports surging 134.5%, a sign that Chinese EV makers are expanding aggressively overseas—a trend that could pressure legacy automakers.
What it means for you
For everyday investors, the key takeaway is that our research picks have, on average, outperformed their benchmarks since launch. But past performance isn't a guarantee of future results. The market can be unpredictable, as August's bond selloff showed. That's why we review our ideas monthly and make changes when the facts change.
If you're following our tracker, you can see exactly how each pick is doing, with links to the original investment case and up-to-date performance stats. That transparency lets you make your own informed decisions, rather than blindly following any single call.
As we head into September, we're mindful of the risks ahead: inflation pressures, central bank policy, and geopolitical tensions. But we're also encouraged by the resilience of corporate earnings and the continued innovation in tech. We'll keep you updated as things evolve.
