Economy
Central banks, inflation, jobs and growth, and the policy decisions that shape the cycle.
Westpac Warns of 25% Recession Risk as Australian Economy Stalls
Westpac estimates a 25% probability that Australia's economy shrank in the June quarter, with its nowcast pegging growth at just 0.2%. The b
Tokyo Inflation Edges Up to 1.6% but Stays Below BOJ Target Ahead of July Meeting
Tokyo's core inflation ticked up to 1.6% in June, but remains below the Bank of Japan's 2% target. The reading, a key early signal for natio
Banxico Holds Rate at 6.50%, Ending Two-Year Easing Cycle
Banxico held its benchmark rate at 6.50% in a unanimous vote, ending a two-year easing cycle. The bank flagged upside inflation risks and se
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Hits 4.1% as El Niño Threat Looms
The Federal Reserve's favored inflation measure, the PCE, rose to 4.1% in May, its fastest pace in over three years. Core PCE also hit a new
Hong Kong Trade Deficit Widens to HK$44.2 Billion as AI Demand Fuels Import Surge
Hong Kong's trade deficit widened to HK$44.2 billion in May, even as exports surged 40.8% on AI-related electronics. Imports rose even faste
US Q1 Growth Revised Up to 2.1%, but Consumer Spending Slumps to 0.5%
The US economy grew faster than initially thought in the first quarter, but the engine of growth shifted away from consumers. That raises qu
US Consumer Spending and Income Rose 0.7% in May as PCE Inflation Held Firm at 0.4%
US households boosted spending and income by 0.7% in May, but the Fed's key inflation measure, the PCE price index, rose 0.4% for a second s
Jobless Claims Dip to 215K, But Rising Trendline and Continuing Claims Signal Cooling Labor Market
New US jobless claims dropped to 215,000 last week, beating expectations. But the four-week average edged higher to 224,250, and continuing
Brazil's Inflation Edges Up to 4.80%, Posing Challenge for Central Bank's Rate-Cut Path
Brazil's consumer prices rose 0.41% through mid-June, slightly below expectations, but the 12-month rate accelerated to 4.80%. That puts inf
Pound Drops 2.2% in June as UK Political Turmoil and Rate Bets Shift
The pound is down 2.2% in June, near its weakest since November, as UK political upheaval and cooling rate hike expectations weigh on the cu
El Niño Fears Push Vietnam Rice Prices Higher, Buyers Shift to India
Vietnam's 5% broken rice rose to $410-$415 per ton as El Niño worries build. Thailand's prices jumped to $480-$500, driving African buyers t
BofA Drops Call for BoE Rate Hike as UK Inflation Holds at 2.8%
Bank of America has abandoned its forecast for a Bank of England rate hike in 2023 after May inflation came in at 2.8%, unchanged from April